The global recovery remains subdued in the context of significant downside risks. Underlying factors shaping the outlook include: ongoing realignments such as the rebalancing in China and the decline in commodity prices; slow productivity growth; unfavorable demographic trends; new shocks such as Brexit—the vote in June by the United Kingdom to leave the European Union; and non-economic factors such as political uncertainty, global conflicts, and refugee crises. These factors imply a generally muted baseline for growth forecasts and substantial uncertainty about economic prospects.